Hurricane Lee is poised to hit Atlantic Canada, but New England is still at risk

AccuWeather meteorologists expect significant risk to life and property from damaging winds and flooding in Nova Scotia this weekend as New England faces direct impacts.

Hurricane Lee is not a Category 5 Hurricane over the open Atlantic, but AccuWeather meteorologists warn that it will still cause significant impacts in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend.

On Monday morning, Lee regained Hurricane strength at Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 120 mph sustained winds. It hovered a few hundred miles north of the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean.

Lee spent some time as a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday after quickly strengthening to a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph on Friday while over the mid-west Atlantic, making it the most powerful 2023 Atlantic hurricane. Lee was an 80-mph Category 1 hurricane on Thursday.

Only six hurricanes have achieved this level of rapid strengthening, and Lee is in the company of Hurricane Wima from 2005, Eta from 2020 and Maria from 2017. according to Colorado State Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

By the time Lee reaches North America (very likely), it will have traveled close to 3,000 miles since birth last week in the mid-Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength with Lee will occur due to changes in the eye of the hurricane, the rise of cooler water beneath the storm and disruptive winds known as wind shear, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

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Lee was moving around the western edge of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and will be affected by strong winds in the area where jets travel, known as the jet stream, later this week.

“Landfall is most likely in Nova Scotia, Canada, this weekend, but any movement caused by non-tropical weather systems such as high pressure to the east and the approaching jet stream could pull the hurricane west into New England or push east into Newfoundland and Labrador,” Rayno said.

Near east of where Lee rolls ashore, significant storm surge will occur with strong winds and the risk of property damage.

Rocky coasts and high tides in Maine and Canada can reduce flooding. However, if Lee tracks farther west, where the coastal slope is more gradual, it could bring heavy rain.

Near, north and west of where Lee makes landfall, heavy rain will develop, causing a greater risk of flooding in rivers and streams where several inches or more fall.

AccuWeather meteorologists sounded optimistic about Lee’s landfall from Florida to North Carolina late last week. On Monday, forecasters extended the all-clear to include areas as far north as southeastern Virginia.

However, these same areas will experience frequent and powerful rip currents that can be life-threatening. Rough surf will lead to coastal erosion in the zone. Coastal flooding during high tides is possible along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this week, with a possible peak on Friday.

Farther north, along the route from Delmarva to New Jersey and Long Island, New York, there is a non-zero chance of Lee wandering, but the chances will increase significantly north of New England and peak in Nova Scotia. . These same areas will experience high tides, coastal wave action, coastal erosion, and rip currents from midweek into this weekend.

The severity of conditions from eastern New England to Nova Scotia and the island of Newfoundland in terms of wind, rain, and coastal problems will depend on the track and strength of Lee later this week and this weekend.

As Lee moves over cooler waters in the North Atlantic later this week and into the weekend, before landfall, it will lose wind power, Rayno said. However, as this occurs the storm’s rain and winds will tend to spread and may be further enhanced and possibly enhanced by the jet stream.

Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists expect significant risk to life and property from damaging winds and flooding in many parts of Nova Scotia from Saturday to Sunday. However, some risk from the direct effects of Hurricane Lee extends as far west as Rhode Island and includes all of eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire, and central and coastal Maine.

Any westward shift in Lee’s track would increase the risk of landfall in New England and the risks of significant impacts to the west.

Forecasters are encouraging deep sea fishing and cargo interests and all small and large cruise ships to monitor the forecast for Hurricane Lee this weekend. Large and dangerous swells of 20-30 feet are possible before the center of the storm, and swells of 10-20 feet will move outward from the center days in advance.

As Hurricane Lee passes 100 miles or more west of Bermuda from Friday into Saturday, impacts to the islands will be Less than 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. Steady tropical winds are possible along with heavy rain and dangerous surf. But, with the high level of building codes in Bermuda, many problems will arise that interfere with movement and daily activities.

Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch Margot over the mid-Atlantic, strengthening from a tropical storm to a hurricane by Monday afternoon. A hurricane can spend its entire life at sea with little impact on land.

Another area AccuWeather forecasters are tracking is a tropical disturbance, called a tropical wave, which has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm this weekend into next week in the mid-Atlantic.

If this system becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane season list for 2023 is Nigel.

“Even these activists are running [impacting Lee] may affect the system during the second half of September,” said Rayno.

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